Revealed: How AV could change Wirral constituencies ... and how your MP is voting

May 5 2011

Wirral voters go to the polls today to redraw the political map of the region. Polling stations will open at 7am and close at 10pm. Voters will have the chance to take part in two ballots, one on who they want to represent them on the region’s councils and the second on the alternative vote referendum. Wirral Council will count the local election and AV ballot papers tonight. The complete counts in Cheshire West and Chester will take place on Friday. To follow the election coverage live, visit www.wirralnews.co.uk

WIRRAL constituencies would be among those in Merseyside to change hands if voters back the "alternative vote" (AV) system in today’s referendum, a leading expert predicted last night.

Seats such as Wirral West and Wirral South would be liable to swing in future elections if AV supporters succeed in pulling off an unlikely victory today.

The analysis, by Jonathan Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, appeared to scotch claims that the result will have little impact on general election results.

But it also found that the Liberal Democrats – the main supporters of a switch to AV – would fail to gain any extra seats in Merseyside.

Latest polls have the No to AV campaign in a comfortable lead.

Under AV, voters rank candidates and second preferences are transferred from last-placed candidates who are knocked out, until one achieves 50% of the vote.

Supporters argue there will be fewer safe seats, forcing MPs to work harder and reach out to more voters – but first-past-the-post backers warn of more coalitions, with government decided by horse-trading and "political fixes".

The Merseyside analysis, by Jonathan Tonge, also vice-president of the Political Studies Association (PSA), found there would be an impact on the following seats:

Wirral South – held by Labour (majority 531), but could be claimed by the Conservatives;

Wirral West – held by the Conservatives (majority 2,436), but could be won by Labour;

Warrington South – a Conservative seat (majority 1,553), but likely to go to Labour;

Chester – again the Conservatives (majority 2,583) could be overhauled by Labour;

Weaver Vale – once more, Labour could pip the Conservatives (majority 991).