Stats the way to do it for promotion-chasing Chorley

Apr 9 2009 by Nick Hilton, Liverpool Daily Post

SELF-CONFESSED stats enthusiast Ben Chorley reckons he’s got Tranmere’s play-off projections all worked out.

The centre-back calculates three more wins from Rovers’ five remaining League One fixtures should be enough to secure them a top-six finish.

That sounds like it could be a modest target given that sixth placed Scunthorpe, who are one point better off than Tranmere, have two games in hand and third placed Leeds United are six points ahead.

But Chorley says he works on the basis of history and points out that no team amassing 74 points or more has failed to secure a play-off spot in the last five years. Three more wins will put Tranmere on 75.

Chorley said: “There will be a few twists and turns to come because League One is the most unpredictable of all the divisions. But I think three wins will be enough for us, although that will have to include us winning our games against Leeds or Scunthorpe, and preferably both.

“If you look at what happened over the last five years, 73 points should get you into the play-offs so three wins from here, putting us on 75 should get the job done.

“Beating Bristol Rovers last Sunday was essential. We did not want a gap to develop between ourselves and the play-off places and its down to just one point.

“We are going into every game now thinking we can win it.”

The records show that last season Southend secured the last play-off spot with 76 points, although they were seven points clear of Brighton in seventh on 69 points.

In 2006-07 Oldham, finishing sixth on 75 points, were three clear of Swansea while in 2005-06 a mere 71 points were enough to secure sixth spot for Swansea ahead of Nottingham Forest on 69.

A total 71 points was also enough to secure Hartlepool sixth place in 2004-05 and they went on to defeat third-placed Tranmere in the play-off semi-final that year. Hartlepool were also sixth in 2003-04 with 73 points, edging out Port Vale, also on 73 points, on goal difference.

The exception to the pattern occurred in 2002-03 when Tranmere amassed 80 points yet still finished seventh, one point behind Cardiff in the last play-off spot yet 15 ahead of the team in eighth place.

Chorley says he is particularly proud of Tranmere’s defensive record this season. He said: “Only Leicester City (the leaders) and Millwall (third) have more clean sheets than the 14 we’ve kept and we are second only to Leicester on goals conceded (43).

“When you consider we conceded 19 goals in the first 10 league games, it shows how well we have tightened things up at the back.

“We defend as a team and I think it helps that there have not been too many changes that the back. Danny Coyne, Ryan Shotton, Ian Goodison, Andy Taylor and myself have played in most of the games and when people like John Achterberg, Gareth Edds and Aaron Cresswell have come into the back four they’ve done so well it did not make a difference.

“Antony Kay and Steve Jennings work very hard in front of us, so opposing teams know they will not get many chances when they play Tranmere.”

Chorley added: “We don’t go galavanting forward from the back.

“We don’t score a lot of goals ourselves so we know we have to keep things tight.

“We’ve had clean sheets in the last three games and we know we have to keep more of them.”

With 66 points on the board, Tranmere have already improved on the performance of last season when they finished 11th on 65 points and one point behind the 67 they posted in manager Ronnie Moore’s first season, 2006-07, when they finished ninth.

Chorley said: “I think we have put in enough good performances to warrant us being where we are. Now it is about making the final push. We’ve had a few unbeaten runs this season but they have not been that long: four games at best. We are unbeaten in the last three and we need to extend that now.

“Every week we seem to have a massive game and we are saying: we really need to win this one.

“We faded out of the race at this stage in the last two seasons but this time we are hanging in there. If we have a setback we bounce back. There’s good character in this side.”